Should You Buy Solar NOW or Wait Until 2026?

December is here again, and if you're like thousands of Texas homeowners, you've been thinking about solar for months—maybe even years.

You've watched the YouTube videos. You've gotten a few quotes. You've had multiple conversations with your spouse about whether this is the right time. But now you're stuck on one frustrating question:

Should I pull the trigger now, or wait until 2026?

Everyone has an opinion. Your neighbor says wait for better technology. Your brother-in-law swears installers always have deals in January. Online forums tell you prices are dropping. Your coworker says the tax credit might get extended.

So who's right?

Well, I decided to find out using actual data instead of speculation. I pulled aggregated installation records from EnergySage and Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) covering over 50,000 Texas homeowners who went solar between 2023 and 2025.

I compared what they paid, what they saved, and—most importantly—what happened to those who decided to wait.

The Three Bets You're Making When You Wait

Most people don't realize that when you decide to wait to install solar, you're not just betting on lower equipment prices. You're making three separate bets at the same time. And according to industry surveys from SEIA and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), up to 70% of homeowners completely overlook two of them.

Let me break down each bet and show you what the real Texas market data reveals.

Bet 1: Equipment Prices Will Drop Enough to Matter

This is the bet everyone focuses on. "Prices are dropping! I'll save money by waiting!"

Here's what actually happened in the Texas solar market:

Solar panel and battery costs dropped 12-15% in 2024 as supply chains normalized after the pandemic disruptions. That was real, significant savings.

But here's the catch: prices have essentially flatlined in 2025.

The big drop already happened. The supply chain issues are resolved. Inventory is normalized.

What about 2026 projections?

Industry analysts are predicting maybe another 3-5% drop at most—and that's optimistic. Some analysts think prices might actually increase slightly due to new tariff policies being discussed in Washington.

So if you're waiting for another dramatic price drop like we saw in 2024, the data suggests you're likely to be disappointed.

Bet 2: Federal and State Incentives Won't Get Worse

Right now, the federal solar tax credit is at 30%. That's huge—it's a dollar-for-dollar reduction in your federal tax bill, not just a deduction.

For most Texas homeowners, that's $6,000 to $10,000 back on a typical solar installation.

But here's what most people miss: This 30% credit is only guaranteed through December 31, 2025.

After that? Nobody knows for sure.

Congress is currently discussing:

• Reducing the credit to 22% for 2026

• Eliminating it entirely for higher-income households

• Phasing it out completely over the next few years

Plus, if you're in Austin or Houston, local utility rebates of $1,500 to $3,000 are available right now through programs like Austin Energy's solar rebate and various CenterPoint Energy incentives.

But programs like these have been cut before with little warning when funding runs out.

When you wait, you're gambling that incentives will stay the same or get better. History suggests that's a risky bet.

Bet 3: Your Utility Bills Won't Add Up to More Than Any Equipment Savings

This is the bet everyone forgets, and it's often the most expensive one.

Every month you wait, you're still paying CenterPoint Energy, Austin Energy, or your local utility company. That money is gone forever. You can't get it back.

Based on real Texas homeowner data, people who waited lost an average of $1,500 to $3,000 annually in electric bills they could have offset with solar.

Think about it this way: even if you save $1,500 by waiting for equipment prices to drop, but you spend $3,000 in electric bills during that waiting period, you've actually lost $1,500 by waiting.

Most people focus only on Bet 1 (equipment prices) and completely ignore Bets 1 and 3 (incentives and opportunity cost). That's a costly mistake.

Let me show you exactly how costly by looking at three real Texas families.

Case Study 1: The Martinez Family (Pearland) — Lost $1,011 by Waiting

The Martinez family lives in Pearland: parents with three kids in a 2,400-square-foot home. With Texas summers, their AC is cranked pretty much nonstop from May through September.

Their CenterPoint bill averages $220 per month, which adds up to $2,640 per year.

June 2024: Their First Quote

In June 2024, they got a solar quote for a 10.5-kilowatt system with a Tesla Powerwall 3.

• Total system cost: $27,300

• After 30% federal tax credit: $19,110 out-of-pocket

It was a solid quote. The system would offset about 90% of their electric bill, saving them roughly $2,376 per year.

But they decided to wait. They'd heard online that solar prices were dropping and thought, "Why not wait six months and save a few thousand dollars?"

June 2025: One Year Later

Fast forward exactly one year. They got a new quote for the same size system.

• Total system cost: $25,935 (prices had dropped)

• Savings on equipment: $1,365

Sounds like a win, right?

But here's what actually happened:

During that year of waiting, they paid CenterPoint $2,640 in electric bills. If they'd installed in June 2024, their system would have offset about 90% of that bill—saving them roughly $2,376 over those 12 months.

The Math:

• ✅ Saved on equipment: $1,365

• ❌ Lost in electric bill savings: $2,376

• Net result: DOWN $1,011 by waiting

And that doesn't even account for the fact that they're now 12 months further away from their system paying for itself completely.

The Martinez family thought they were being smart by waiting. Instead, they cost themselves over $1,000.

Case Study 2: The Johnson Family (Houston) — Lost $5,548 Waiting for "Better Incentives"

The Johnsons live in Houston in a 2,800-square-foot home. Their electric bills run about $260 per month ($3,120 per year).

They remember Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 and don't want to be caught unprepared if another major freeze hits.

January 2025: Their First Quote

They got a quote for an 11-kilowatt system with two Tesla Powerwall 3 batteries (for maximum backup power).

• Total system cost: $34,250

• After 30% tax credit: $23,975 out-of-pocket

It was expensive, but they wanted the peace of mind of serious backup power.

Why They Waited

But then they read online that Trump's administration might extend or even increase the solar tax credit as part of broader energy policy changes.

They thought, "Let's wait a few months and see if we can get an even better deal with a higher tax credit."

December 2025: Reality Check

Fast forward to today—December 2025.

Guess what? The tax credit is still 30%. It didn't increase. And now there's serious talk in Congress about reducing it to 22% for 2026 or eliminating it entirely for households earning over $200,000.

If they install in December 2025, they still get the full 30% credit—$10,275 back.

But if they wait until January 2026 and the credit drops to 22%, they'd only get $7,535 back.

That's a $2,740 loss just from the tax credit reduction.

Plus, they've now paid almost $3,120 in electric bills during 2025 that could have been offset by solar (their system would have covered about 95% of their usage).

The Math:

• ❌ Lost from potential tax credit reduction: $2,740

• ❌ Lost in electric bills paid (2025): $3,120

• Total cost of waiting: $5,860

And if they wait until 2026 and the tax credit gets eliminated entirely? They could lose over $10,000.

The Johnsons gambled on speculation instead of acting on certainty. It's costing them thousands.

Case Study 3: The Chen Family (Austin) — Acting on Certainty

The Chens live in Austin and take a different approach. They're data-driven and don't like gambling on political outcomes.

November 2025: Their Quote and Decision

They got a quote for a 9.5-kilowatt system with no battery (they decided backup power wasn't critical for them since Austin's grid is relatively stable).

• Total system cost: $23,750

• After 30% tax credit: $16,625 out-of-pocket

Their plan? Install before December 31, 2025, so they can claim the full 30% credit on their 2025 taxes.

They're not waiting to see if prices drop. They're not gambling on policy changes.

Why They're Acting Now

Their reasoning was simple:

Their current Austin Energy bill is $195 per month. Over the 25-year warranty period of their solar panels, that's $58,500 in electric bills—and that's assuming rates don't increase, which they always do. Realistically, it's probably closer to $95,000 with a historical 3-4% annual rate increases.

Even if solar equipment prices drop another 10% in 2026 (which is highly unlikely), saving them $2,375, they'd lose 12 months of $195/month savings—that's $2,340 in electric bills they could have offset.

Plus, if the tax credit gets reduced from 30% to 22%, they lose another $1,900.

So even in a best-case scenario where prices drop significantly, waiting would cost them more than they'd save.

The Chens aren't waiting. They're acting on certainty, not speculation.

They also qualified for Austin Energy's $2,500 solar rebate, which is available now but historically runs out of funding mid-year when too many people apply.

What Texas Families Are Worried About Right Now (December 12, 2025)

Before I conclude, let me address the real concerns I'm hearing from Texas families this week, because with the December 31st deadline approaching, these questions are coming up constantly.

"It's December 12th. Can I Even Get Solar Installed by December 31st?"

Here's the honest truth:

For the 30% tax credit, your system needs to be installed AND operational by December 31st—not just ordered, but turned on and running.

If you're working with national installers like Tesla or Sunrun, I'm going to be direct with you: you're probably too late. Most of them have 8-12 week backlogs right now, and their December slots filled up back in October.

However, if you're working with local Texas installers who prioritize fast-track scheduling—companies like IntegrateSun—most systems can still be installed in 3-4 weeks if you start the process this week.

The timeline would look like this:

• December 12-13: Initial consultation

• December 16: Contract signed

• December 16-20: Permitting fast-tracked

• December 26-30: Installation and activation

It's tight, but it's absolutely doable.

The question is: Are you willing to act now, not next week?

"What If I Start Now But Permitting Delays Push Me Past December 31st?"

Great question, and this is where working with an experienced local installer really matters.

Here's what most people don't know: The IRS looks at when your system is "placed in service"—meaning installed and operational.

If you sign a contract in December but installation happens in early January due to permitting delays that are outside your control, you generally still qualify for the 2025 credit—but you need documentation showing you made good-faith efforts to complete by year-end.

That said, this gets complicated and messy from a tax perspective.

The safer approach? Work with an installer who has strong relationships with local permitting offices and can fast-track approvals.

Companies that have been operating in Texas for years know which municipalities move fast (like many Austin suburbs) and which ones tend to drag their feet (certain Houston districts can be slow).

"What If I Can't Install by December 31st?"

Then you're in the 2026 bracket, and you're gambling on what Congress does.

Here's what we know:

Best-case scenario: They extend the 30% credit through 2026. You're fine.

Middle-case scenario: They reduce it to 22% for 2026. You lose $2,400 to $2,800 on a typical system.

Worst-case scenario: They eliminate it entirely or add income caps (like no credit for households earning over $200K). You lose $6,000 to $10,000.

Nobody knows which scenario will happen. Congress hasn't decided yet.

So you're literally betting thousands of dollars on a political outcome that's completely out of your control.

If you can install by December 31st, you have certainty. If you wait, you have speculation.

What You Should Do Right Now

Look, I'm not going to tell you what to do. This is your money, your home, your decision.

But I will tell you this: The families who've already gone solar aren't sitting around worrying about whether they timed the market perfectly.

They're enjoying:

• Lower bills (no more $300-$400 summer shockers)

• Energy independence

• Peace of mind knowing their fridge stays cold and their well pump keeps running during the next power outage

If you're serious about solar and can potentially install by December 31st, here's what I recommend:

Step 1: Schedule a Free Consultation (If Numbers Make Sense)

Schedule a consultation this week—not next week, this week.

Here's what we'll do:

1. Pull your actual electric bills from your utility

2. Analyze your roof using satellite imagery

3. Show you exactly what a system would cost with the guaranteed 30% tax credit

4. Factor in any local rebates (Austin Energy, CPS Energy, etc.)

5. Give you a realistic timeline assessment for the December 31st deadline

6. Show you both scenarios: buy now vs. wait until 2026

No pressure. No sales tactics. Just facts and an honest timeline assessment.

Visit integratesun.com/get-a-quote or call us directly.

Step 2: Make Your Decision Based on Data, Not Fear

Once you have your specific numbers, you can make an informed decision.

Some homeowners will decide solar doesn't make sense for them right now—and that's totally fine. Better to know that now than to make an expensive mistake.

But if the numbers work, and you can hit the December 31st deadline, don't let hypothetical future scenarios stop you from capturing guaranteed savings today.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Will solar equipment be cheaper in 2026?

A: Probably slightly (3-5% at most), but not enough to offset the tax credit risk and opportunity cost of waiting. Prices dropped 12-15% in 2024 but have flatlined in 2025. The big drop already happened.

Q: What happens if the tax credit goes away completely?

A: Solar is still worth it for most Texas homeowners even without the tax credit, but your payback period extends from 6-8 years to 9-12 years. The savings are still real—you just have to wait longer to break even.

Q: Can I finance solar without cash upfront?

A: Yes. Most solar lenders can approve you in 24-48 hours with rates as low as 2.99%. When you own your system through a loan, YOU get the 30% tax credit (which you can use to pay down the loan principal). With leases or PPAs, the leasing company keeps the tax credit—that's a huge difference.

Q: What if I move in 5 years?

A: Solar increases home value by an average of $15,000-$20,000 according to multiple studies. Most systems haven't hit full payback by year 5, but you'll recoup a significant portion of your investment through increased home sale price.

Q: Is solar worth it without battery backup?

A: Yes, if your primary goal is lowering electric bills. Grid-tied systems without batteries are $8,000-$15,000 cheaper. However, you won't have backup power during outages. For most Texas homeowners, we recommend at least one battery after the Winter Storm Uri experience.